$470 Billionの賭け：ハイパースケーラー（hyperscalers）が推論（inference）に再投資する

As the first major earnings season of 2026 begins, the world’s largest technology companies are signaling an unprecedented acceleration in artificial intelligence spending. Market consensus now projects that Big Tech "hyperscalers"—led by Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon—will collectively push capital expenditures（資本支出、Capex） beyond $470 billion this year, a sharp increase from the $350 billion estimated in 2025. This surge is no longer just about training massive models; it marks a strategic pivot toward deploying the infrastructure necessary to run them at scale.

The narrative for 2026 has shifted from "building the brain" to "putting the brain to work." With earnings reports due this week from Apple, Meta, Microsoft, and Tesla, investors are bracing for updated guidance that reflects this massive infrastructure build-out. While Wall Street remains cautious about return on investment (ROI), the tech giants are offering a clear rebuttal: the demand for 推論（inference）—the actual usage of AI models—is outstripping supply, necessitating a new generation of efficient, purpose-built silicon.

Microsoft Leads the Charge with Maia 200

Just hours before its earnings call, Microsoft signaled its aggressive stance by unveiling the Maia 200, a second-generation AI accelerator designed specifically for 推論（inference） workloads. The timing is deliberate, intended to reassure investors that the company is addressing the cost-per-token challenge that plagues commercial AI deployment.

Built on TSMC’s advanced 3nm process, the Maia 200 represents a significant leap over its predecessor. While the Maia 100 was a general-purpose training and 推論（inference） chip, the 200 series is laser-focused on running models efficiently. It features 140 billion transistors and is equipped with 216GB of HBM3e memory, providing the massive bandwidth required to serve 大規模言語モデル（LLMs） with low latency.

Key specifications of the new silicon reveal Microsoft's strategy to reduce reliance on third-party GPU vendors for routine workloads:

Microsoft Maia 200 Specifications vs. Industry Standard

Microsoft claims the chip delivers 30% better performance-per-dollar than the current generation of merchant silicon deployed in Azure. By optimizing for 4-bit (FP4) and 8-bit (FP8) precision—data formats that are sufficient for 推論（inference） but require less computational power than training—Microsoft aims to dramatically lower the cost of serving queries for Copilot and OpenAI’s GPT-5.2 models.

The Great Inference Shift

The explosion in 資本支出（Capex） is being driven by a fundamental change in the AI lifecycle. For the past three years, spending was dominated by training clusters—massive supercomputers designed to teach models how to think. In 2026, the focus is shifting to 推論（inference） clusters, which are needed to answer user queries, generate images, and process real-time data.

Industry analysts note that while training happens once (or periodically), 推論（inference） happens every time a user interacts with an AI product. As user bases for products like ChatGPT, Meta AI, and Apple Intelligence grow into the billions, the compute cost scales linearly.

Goldman Sachs has revised its own estimates upward, suggesting the $470 billion figure could be conservative, with an upside scenario reaching $527 billion if 生成式AI（Generative AI） adoption accelerates in enterprise sectors. This spending is not just on chips; it encompasses a complete overhaul of data center architecture, including liquid cooling systems, nuclear power agreements, and custom networking gear designed to handle the dense traffic of 推論（inference） workloads.

Earnings Week: What to Watch

As the earnings reports roll in, each hyperscaler faces unique pressure to justify these expenditures.

• Meta Platforms: CEO Mark Zuckerberg is expected to update investors on the infrastructure roadmap for Llama 4 and beyond. Meta’s strategy relies heavily on open-weights models, which requires immense compute capacity to maintain ubiquity. Analysts will be looking for details on how Meta plans to monetize this massive footprint, potentially through advanced advertising tools or enterprise licensing.
• Apple: With the full rollout of Apple Intelligence features to the iPhone 17 lineup, Apple is entering the server-side AI fray. Unlike its peers, Apple has historically relied on on-device processing, but the complexity of new agents requires プライベートクラウドコンピュート（Private Cloud Compute）. Expenditures here are expected to spike as Apple deploys its own silicon-based servers globally.
• Tesla: The wild card of the group, Tesla’s spending is bifurcated between training its Full Self-Driving (FSD) models and building the Dojo supercomputer. The market is watching closely to see if Tesla’s investment in AIインフラストラクチャ can finally unlock higher margins in its automotive and robotics divisions.

Investor Sentiment: The ROI Ultimatum

Despite the technical achievements, the mood on Wall Street is a mix of awe and anxiety. The sheer scale of 資本支出 required to compete in the AI arms race is compressing free cash flow margins. Investors are no longer satisfied with vague promises of "future capabilities"; they are demanding clear evidence that these billions are generating incremental revenue today.

The introduction of efficiency-focused chips like the Maia 200 is a direct response to this anxiety. By lowering the operating cost of AI, hyperscalers hope to improve the unit economics of their products, turning high-revenue AI services into high-margin ones.

As 2026 unfolds, the separation between the "AI Haves" and "AI Have-Nots" will widen. Those with the balance sheets to sustain a half-trillion-dollar infrastructure build-out will define the next decade of computing, while smaller players may find themselves priced out of the hardware game entirely. For now, the checkbooks are open, and the silicon is hot.