Beijing Tightens Grip: Meta’s $2B Manus Deal Faces Expanded Probe

By Creati.ai Editorial Team
January 26, 2026

The global race for artificial intelligence supremacy has hit a new geopolitical snag. What was intended to be a decisive victory for Meta Platforms Inc.—the $2 billion acquisition of agentic AI pioneer Manus—has evolved into a complex regulatory standoff. As of this week, China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) has significantly widened its investigation into the deal, signaling a potential crackdown on what industry insiders call "Singapore-washing"—the practice of Chinese startups relocating headquarters to neutral jurisdictions to court Western capital.

The Investigation Deepens: Beyond National Security

Initially reported in early January as a preliminary review regarding technology export licenses, the probe has now metastasized. Sources close to the proceedings in Beijing indicate that regulators have expanded their scope beyond national security to include a forensic audit of cross-border currency flows, tax compliance, and data governance.

At the heart of the dispute is Manus, a startup that rapidly ascended to the top tier of the AI ecosystem with its "agentic" capabilities—software that doesn't just generate text but autonomously executes complex workflows. While the company officially positions itself as a Singapore-based entity, its origins are undeniably Chinese. Founded by entrepreneurs under the parent company "Butterfly Effect," Manus operated out of Beijing and Wuhan before executing a strategic migration of its headquarters and core staff to Singapore in July 2025.

MOFCOM’s spokesperson, He Yadong, emphasized last Thursday that all enterprises engaging in overseas investment must "strictly comply" with Chinese laws. The subtext is clear: simply moving a mailing address to the Strait of Singapore does not exempt a company with deep Chinese technological roots from Beijing’s export control regime.

The Core Dispute: Technology Export Controls

The central friction point lies in China’s evolving "Catalogue of Technologies Prohibited or Restricted from Export." Following the tightened regulations of late 2024 and 2025, advanced AI algorithms—specifically those involving interactive interfaces and autonomous decision-making—require explicit government approval before transfer to foreign entities.

Beijing’s concern is twofold. First, there is the fear of "technology leakage," where homegrown innovation is swallowed by a U.S. tech giant. Second, there is the precedent. If Manus successfully exits to Meta without regulatory friction, it could trigger an exodus of China’s brightest AI talent and IP to offshore havens, hollowing out the domestic ecosystem.

Regulatory Friction Points in the Meta-Manus Deal

Manus: The "Action Engine" That Caught Zuckerberg's Eye

To understand the stakes, one must understand the technology. Manus is not merely another chatbot. In the crowded field of Generative AI, Manus carved out a niche as an "Action Engine." While competitors like OpenAI and Google focused on reasoning and multimodal generation, Manus focused on execution—building "hands" for AI to interact with browsers, write and deploy code, and manage enterprise software autonomously.

For Meta, the acquisition was strategic. Mark Zuckerberg has been aggressive in pivoting Meta’s AI strategy from passive assistance to active agency. Manus was meant to be the engine powering the next generation of Meta AI, allowing it to perform tangible tasks for users across WhatsApp, Instagram, and the Quest ecosystem.

However, this technological capability is exactly what makes the startup sensitive. "Agentic AI is the next frontier of dual-use technology," notes an industry analyst based in Hong Kong. "An AI that can autonomously code and navigate the web is an incredibly powerful productivity tool, but in the eyes of defense regulators, it is also a potential cyber-weapon."

The "Singapore-Washing" Controversy

The Manus case has brought the phenomenon of "Singapore-washing" into sharp relief. For years, Chinese founders have used Singapore as a geopolitical airlock—a neutral ground where they could shed the "Chinese company" label to attract US venture capital and avoid trade blacklists.

Manus executed this playbook to perfection. By moving key staff and IP to Singapore in mid-2025 and attracting investment from top-tier US firms like Benchmark, they effectively "sanitized" the company for a Western exit. The deepened investigation suggests Beijing is closing this loophole.

The review is examining whether the transfer of intellectual property from "Butterfly Effect" in Beijing to the Singapore entity was undervalued or conducted without proper approvals. If regulators determine the IP transfer was invalid, they could theoretically claim that Meta has purchased stolen assets, creating a legal quagmire that could drag on for years.

Customer Backlash and Integration Challenges

While regulators circle, Meta faces trouble on the commercial front. The acquisition has unsettled Manus’s existing enterprise customer base, many of whom chose the platform specifically because it wasn't tied to a Big Tech data ecosystem.

Reports indicate a wave of customer churn following the announcement. Seth Dobrin, CEO of Arya Labs and a prominent Manus user, publicly stated his intention to leave the platform, citing a lack of trust in Meta’s data practices. "I do not agree with a lot of Meta's practices around data," Dobrin told reporters. "We are moving to alternatives where there is more certainty."

This exodus undermines the value of the acquisition. Meta bought Manus not just for its code, but for its traction in the enterprise market—a sector where Meta has historically struggled to gain a foothold. If the user base evaporates before integration is complete, Meta may be left with a $2 billion shell.

Implications for the Global AI Ecosystem

The outcome of this investigation will set a definitive precedent for the global AI landscape.

If China forces an unwind or imposes crippling penalties, it will effectively freeze the "China-to-Global" startup pipeline. Venture capitalists in Silicon Valley will become even more hesitant to back founders with Chinese ties, fearing that any eventual exit could be vetoed by Beijing. Conversely, Chinese founders may be forced to choose a lane early: build solely for the domestic market or sever ties with China completely before writing a single line of code.

For Meta, the Manus deal has become a litmus test for its ability to navigate the fragmented geopolitical map of 2026. The company has stated there will be "no continuing Chinese ownership interests" and that services in China will be shut down. Yet, as the expanded probe shows, in the era of AI nationalism, you cannot simply unplug a company from its origins. The code may be in the cloud, but the jurisdiction is very much on the ground.